Updates
- Update 25/May: Updated Analysis of $ALEX Selling Pressure and STX/ALEX Liquidity Impact if the Proposal Passes (the end of this post)
Key Terms Explained:
- Guaranteed STX: This is the amount of STX that each community member should ideally have had there been no security exploit, as determined by the state of accounts at block #150610.
- Guaranteed ALEX: Similarly, this represents the amount of ALEX that should be in users’ wallets, based on the snapshot at block #150610, assuming no exploit occurred.
- Remaining Cycles: This term refers to the originally set waiting period for withdrawing funds from the Liquidity Pool (LP) under normal conditions.
- Recoverable STX: This is the amount of STX that the ALEX team has managed to secure back from various sources post-exploit.
Proposed Solution Steps:
- Fair Distribution: The ALEX team plans to distribute the Recoverable STX fairly among all LP holders based on their share of the pool. For example, if a wallet accounts for 1% of the LP’s total value, it will receive 1% of the Recoverable STX, referred to as Restored STX.
- Calculating Loss: The team will determine the STX shortfall, termed as Lost STX, using the formula:
Lost STX = Guaranteed STX - Restored STX - Compensation with ALEX: To address any Lost STX, the ALEX team will provide ALEX tokens at a rate agreed upon by the community vote, such as 1 STX = 10 ALEX. This will be termed as Compensated ALEX.
- Respecting the Waiting Period: The original Remaining Cycles will be used to determine when users can start accessing these compensated ALEX tokens.
- Supportive Vesting Period: To further support the ecosystem, the compensated ALEX will be released over the maximum cycle duration used in farming, which is 32 cycles (about 128 days). Each cycle, a portion of the compensated ALEX will become available to the users.
To determine the amount of ALEX released per cycle during the vesting period, the following formula is used:
ALEX Released Per Cycle (for 1 wallet) = Total Compensated ALEX (of that wallet) / 32
Where:
- Total Compensated ALEX is the total amount of ALEX tokens allocated as compensation for the Lost STX of a wallet
Example:
If a user is to be compensated with 320 ALEX tokens, the amount released per cycle would be calculated as:
320 ALEX / 32 cycles = 10 ALEX per cycle
- Reward Adjustment: Recognizing that users would have earned rewards if the exploit hadn’t occurred, the ALEX team will also add these expected rewards to the compensated ALEX, ensuring no loss on potential earnings.
To calculate the rewards users would have earned if not for the exploit, an additional amount of ALEX needs to be added to the Compensated ALEX:
Final Compensated ALEX = Compensated ALEX + Expected Rewards
Where:
- Compensated ALEX is the initial compensation calculation from Step 5.
- Expected Rewards is the estimation of rewards that would have been earned during the period affected by the exploit, calculated based on historical data or average yield rates.
Example:
If the Compensated ALEX were 320 and the Expected Rewards calculated based on past yield were 20 ALEX:
Final Compensated ALEX = 320 ALEX + 20 ALEX = 340 ALEX
Handling Unforeseen Circumstances:
I. Recovery of Additional STX:
If the ALEX team recovers additional STX or secures more through borrowing during the compensation period, they will distribute these newly recovered STX directly to users as outlined in step 1. Following this, they will recalculate the required compensation in ALEX based on the previously agreed-upon rate, as described in step 3.
Here’s How It Works:
- Give Back Recovered STX:
- As soon as the ALEX team recovers any STX, they give these STX directly to the users based on how much each person originally lost. For example, if you were supposed to get 1% of the total lost STX, you’ll get 1% of the new recovered STX.
- Adjust ALEX Compensation:
- After giving back the recovered STX, the team recalculates how much ALEX they still need to give to fully compensate for any remaining lost STX. They use a set rate to convert STX into ALEX (like 1 STX = 10 ALEX).
- This means if they give back more STX, they need to give less ALEX because the total loss has decreased.
- The formula for recalculating the compensation if more STX are recovered is:
Adjusted Compensated ALEX = Current Compensated ALEX - (Recovered Additional STX × STX to ALEX Rate)
Example:
If 10 additional STX are recovered and the current Compensated ALEX is 340:
Adjusted Compensated ALEX = 340 ALEX - (10 STX × 10 ALEX/STX) = 340 ALEX - 100 ALEX = 240 ALEX
Where:
- Current Compensated ALEX is the ALEX amount currently set for compensation before the recovery of additional STX.
- Recovered Additional STX is the amount of STX additionally recovered.
- STX to ALEX Rate is the conversion rate from STX to ALEX agreed upon by the community (e.g., 1 STX = 10 ALEX).
What This Means:
- This method is ongoing. Every time the team recovers more STX, they adjust how much ALEX they need to give out. It ensures that everyone gets back what they lost in a fair way.
- The ALEX team keeps doing this throughout the whole period they’ve set for giving back losses, making sure every new bit of recovered STX is accounted for and users get their due share.
II. Shortage of ALEX:
If there are not enough ALEX tokens available, the ALEX team will tap into the founders’ and team’s reserves to meet the compensation commitments. In such a scenario, it is essential that the founders sacrifice a portion of their tokens to demonstrate their responsibility.
Key Points of Fairness and Balance:
- Equitable Compensation: We are set to receive fair compensation for our losses through a combination of restored STX and ALEX tokens. The formula used ensures that everyone receives a proportionate share based on their original investment, which feels just and equitable.
- Vesting and Stability: The decision to distribute the compensated ALEX over the original remaining cycles (32 cycles) respects our initial expectations regarding liquidity and helps prevent market flooding with ALEX tokens. This approach not only protects our investments from potential price dumps but also shows foresight in maintaining the overall health of the token’s market value.
- Inclusion of Expected Rewards: Including an adjustment for the rewards we would have earned had the hack not occurred adds another layer of fairness. It acknowledges not just the direct losses from the stolen assets but also the opportunity costs, ensuring that our potential earnings are respected.
- Dynamic Adjustments for Additional Recoveries: The proposal’s flexibility to adjust the compensation based on additional STX recoveries during the compensation period ensures that the compensation remains fair and aligned with actual losses. This dynamic adjustment mechanism is crucial for maintaining trust and fairness as it adapts to new developments.
- Use of Founders’ Token if needed: The readiness to use the founders’ and team’s reserves in case of an ALEX shortage underlines a strong commitment to fulfilling the compensation promise. This reassures us that the team is prepared to prioritize user compensation over other potential financial allocations.
Overall Fairness and Transparency:
From a user’s perspective, this proposal not only aims to make us whole to the best of the team’s ability but also does so in a way that ensures the long-term viability of the ALEX token. By inviting community feedback and putting critical decisions to a vote, the team is maintaining transparency and inclusiveness, crucial for rebuilding trust.
In conclusion, the proposal represents a thoughtful balance between compensating users fully and protecting the ALEX ecosystem’s integrity and stability. It acknowledges the sacrifices we, as users, have made in terms of both the significant amount of STX lost and the extended vesting time. The measures taken to ensure the stability of the ALEX price further reflect a responsible and user-centric approach, making this proposal a fair resolution in the wake of the challenges we have faced.
What is lacking in this proposal?
There are shortcomings in the liquidity of this proposal.
The proposal for recovering and distributing STX and ALEX tokens omits crucial details about reinforcing liquidity pools, which are vital for the smooth functioning of decentralized exchanges.
Key recommendations:
- Direct Funding of Liquidity Pools: It’s essential for the ALEX team to allocate additional resources directly to liquidity pools to ensure market stability and user confidence.
- Separation of Funds: The plan should clearly separate funds used for compensating affected users from those allocated to enhance liquidity. Using recovered STX for liquidity could undermine the compensation process.
Update 25/May: Updated Analysis of $ALEX Selling Pressure and STX/ALEX Liquidity Impact if the Proposal Passes
I’ve conducted a detailed analysis to predict the selling pressure of $ALEX under the worst-case scenario.
Assumptions:
- STX/ALEX ratio is set at 1 STX = 10 ALEX, deemed satisfactory for all.
- Current financial overview of ALEX as detailed here: ALEX Financial State
Financial Summary:
- ALEX holds 160 million $ALEX tokens, currently valued at $32 million (assuming $ALEX price is $0.2).
- They possess $7 million in USDC, with $1 million allocated for operational expenses over the next year, leaving $6 million USDC.
Worst Case Scenario:
- No STX recoverable from CEX and exploiter in the future.
- ALEX’s current holdings are:
- 150k STX and 173M ALEX in SP3K8BC0PPEVCV7NZ6QSRWPQ2JE9E5B6N3PA0KBR9.executor-dao.
- 1.4M STX and 164M ALEX in SP3K8BC0PPEVCV7NZ6QSRWPQ2JE9E5B6N3PA0KBR9.alex-vault.
Compensation Calculation:
- Original STX loss is 13.7M STX.
- With a 1:10 ratio, ALEX would need to return 137M ALEX and 13.7M STX.
- With only 150k STX recovered, the final STX required = 13.7M - 150k = 13.55M STX.
- This translates to a need for 135.5M ALEX for compensation (1:10 STX/ALEX rate)
Remaining ALEX:
- Total ALEX left after compensations = 337M (total holdings) - 137M (returned ALEX) - 135.5M (compensation ALEX) = 64.5M ALEX.
- With $6M USDC, equivalent to about 3M STX, they can add 3M STX and 30M ALEX to the liquidity pool, leaving 34.5M ALEX.
Adding to Liquidity Pool:
- It is advised that ALEX be added to the liquidity pool before starting user compensation.
Market Impact:
- Even in scenarios where no additional STX is recovered and no further liquidity is added, the pool would still hold a value of 12M, which is 20% of the TVL before the exploit. (Data on Defillama and Signal 21)
- Assuming a 1-month average cliff time for users, with a 4-month vesting period, if all compensated ALEX (272.5M) is sold off, it would equate to 8M ALEX being sold every 4 days over 32 cycles.
Conclusion:
- The calculated selling pressure of 8M ALEX every 4 days under a no-buy scenario isn’t as severe as anticipated. This scenario provides a more manageable outlook on $ALEX’s market stability post-compensation.
This analysis intends to provide a clear view of the potential market dynamics following the implementation of the proposed compensation plan.